Is another NLD win possible for Spurs?

Tottenham got their first ever North London derby win at home last season. Nearly a year on, where are Spurs now?

Martha Thomas celebrates scoring the winner in last season’s North London derby.

A year is a long time in football.

In December 2023, Tottenham were heading into the North London derby having gone five games without a league win and 16 games without a clean sheet. In the two matches leading up to the clash, Spurs had suffered heavy defeats against Manchester City and Manchester United, conceding eleven goals and scoring none.

Meanwhile, Arsenal were heading to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium off the back of of a huge 4-1 win over champions Chelsea. A few days before last season’s WSL match up, Spurs and Arsenal faced each other in a League Cup game at Meadow Park. In that fixture, we got the first indication that Spurs were not the team that had collapsed against both Manchester sides. Instead, Spurs went ahead three times before eventually drawing 3-3 and then losing 4-3 on penalties (such is the madness of the League Cup group stages). Few of us predicted the cup result would be bettered four days later when Martha Thomas scored a second-half winner and Spurs claimed a first-ever win against their rivals.

Arsenal ‘should’ have won last year’s NLD. Their xG (expected goals) was 2.5 to Spurs’ 0.4 (FBRef). But a mixture of chances not taken, Arsenal’s bad luck and a series of gut-busting on-the-line blocks helped Spurs claim a season-defining victory and rare clean sheet. Although Arsenal did go on to win the reverse fixture in March, overcoming the old enemy after so many big losses was huge and cemented new manager Robert Vilahamn in supporters’ hearts. 

What’s changed?

Like last year, the run-up to the NLD has been rocky. Spurs have lost their first three match-ups with the WSL’s ‘big four’ teams (Chelsea, City and United). This season, Spurs have lost those clashes by a goal difference of 12-2, in 2023-24 it was 13-1. In their games against the rest of the league, Spurs have won two, drawn one and lost one. At this point last season, Spurs had played one more game but had similarly won half of their fixtures against non-big four teams (three wins and three draws). 

Nonetheless, there is a pessimism about Spurs which is less about Vilahamn’s side radically worsening (they haven’t) and more about failing to build on the momentum of last year’s NLD win, a top-half league finish and the team’s first-ever Women’s FA Cup Final. 

Tottenham’s first seven games of the WSL season.

Since last year’s NLD victory, there has been personnel and playing style changes. This is most obvious in midfield, where all four of last year’s NLD starters have left or are unavailable. The player whose loss has been most obvious is Grace Clinton. Her excellent start to the season at United has only rubbed salt into the wound. Clinton’s ability to take-on players was a big part of both the League Cup and WSL clashes last December. In Spurs’ 1-0 win, she completed eight of eight attempted dribbles and won 16 of 23 ground duels. Alongside her Celin Bizet, like Clinton now at United, produced the mazy run and assist for the winning goal. But the two players who started inside of Clinton and Bizet are also now unavailable. Ramona Petzelberger left the club in the summer and Kit Graham suffered her second and the league’s umpteenth ACL injury in late summer. 

Graham was not a consistent starter last season but Spurs’ results against ‘big four’ opponents were better when Graham played at least 50 minutes – in none of these games did Spurs lose by more than a goal. Conversely, they did not get a win or get a point in any league or cup games against ‘big four’ teams without Graham on the pitch for 50 minutes. Part of this is Graham’s aerial presence (surprising given her height) which provided cover for an area in which Spurs are defensively weak. But another aspect is the chance creation generated by her on-the-ball progression and the extra dimension this creates. 

Kit Graham suffered her second ACL injury in just over two years back in September.

Vilahamn’s style of play is usually characterised by quick passing from back to front. When he arrived one of the first things to improve was Spurs’ pass completion. This approach was most perfectly realised in Thomas’ goal in last year’s NLD. The build up to the goal saw a passing sequence involving ten of the 11 players on the pitch. But in that game players like Clinton, Bizet and Graham provided spaces for ball progression by taking opponents on and pulling in opposition players. 

This year, Spurs have a midfield more comfortable passing than carrying the ball. Both Jessica Naz and Matilda Vinberg do a lot of running off the ball. The would-be Clinton replacement Maite Oroz is injured but seems to be more of a passer than ball carrier. Neither Martha Thomas nor Bethany England (both sometimes played deep) take on players or carry the ball regularly. This has meant that there have been fewer options for progression, something that has been especially notable in games where opponents have closed-down passing lanes – this marked Spurs’ most recent 4-0 loss to Manchester City and we are likely to see it in the upcoming game against Arsenal. 

How can Spurs get a result? 

For Spurs to score goals against Arsenal they need to find ways to be more creative. At present the team’s first instinct is to pass through the lines and in the first few games of the season they did this quite successfully. But against stronger teams and without Oroz in the midfield that has been less successful – as indicated by a decline in the number of completed passes. Spurs’ second approach - if passing options are shut down - is to play balls long for the attackers – primarily Naz but also Hayley Raso, Vinberg or England to run onto. All four are strong players and this worked in the first couple of games, but it can become predictable. When the ball is played from deep to attackers just over the halfway line too often the player receiving the ball is isolated and quickly surrounded by defenders. 

In Spurs’ 4-0 defeat to City last Friday, we saw Eveliina Summanen carry the ball much more than she typically does. This is not her typical game, rarely her first instinct, and she often looks a little off balance. But lacking ball-carrying players and with City focused on closing off passing options, Summanen found a surprising amount of space in the centre of the pitch, racking up 31 carries (a distance of 207 yards) and was the Spurs player to create the most chances in this game, despite Spurs having just 29 percent possession. Compare this with the game against West Ham where Spurs had almost twice the possession, but Summanen carried the ball just 52 yards (FBRef). Working out how Summanen or others can better exploit these spaces when they open up is essential in tight games. One of the issues here is the lack of central or defensive midfielders. This was a concern I raised in the season preview and seven games in, having seen attackers dropping back or centre-backs stepping forward into midfield roles, it remains a concern. 

Irrespective of midfield endeavour, Spurs’ avoidance of disaster largely rests on tightening up the league’s most leaky defence. So far, Spurs are conceding at a rate of 2.6 goals per game. It won’t be easy to limit Arsenal as they’ve scored nine in their last two games and seemingly rediscovered their shooting boots since the departure of Jonas Eidevall last month.

Vilahamn has been unwilling to swap out current first-choice keeper Becky Spencer, despite continued mistakes and widespread rumours of a new keeper arriving in January. Spurs’ defeat to City provides little defensive comfort with our previously most consistent centre-back Clare Hunt having a torrid time. We did, however, see a few positive signs against City: the return of centre-back Amy James-Turner and Ella Morris demonstrating in just her second start that she could handle big game pressure. 

Whether Spurs get anything from Saturday’s North London derby may ultimately come down to whether one player has a worldie. Last season it was Barbora Votíkova whose eight saves changed the game. The Czech keeper never replicated the heights she reached in that game and left Spurs in the summer, having played just 540 minutes of league football. So this season we need a new hero. 

If Spurs do suffer a heavy defeat, the team will need to mourn and move on quickly. The three games that follow the NLD – Everton Brighton and Leicester – are likely to be more important in determining where Spurs finish this season.