Matchweek three saw the toughest test yet for fantasy teams, with an average score of 56 points being the lowest of the season so far. Lauren James was selected in a third of teams but wasn’t even named on the bench for Chelsea, meaning a blank premium for many.
There were also some unexpected results: Arsenal and United drew on Saturday, Leicester and West Ham both lost at home in matches they were expected to win, and an early red card for Palace made for a difficult afternoon as Spurs put seven past them.
I’ve got good news and bad news for this Matchweek four
The bad news is that it’s a tough week for picking well. There aren’t many ‘obvious’ picks; we could see some squad rotation, and there are midweek games on either side of this weekend’s games.
The good news? I’ve done all the research for you and picked out the 15 best picks for MW4.
Starting XI
Ayaka Yamashita (Manchester City) £5.5m
Man City should be approached with caution this weekend as they’re primed to rotate their players. On paper, their WSL game against bottom-placed Charlton on Saturday is an easier fixture than the two UWCL games either side: they had a tough game they had in Munich on Tuesday, and host Real Madrid on Thursday next week.
However, Yamashita is probably the most rotation-resistant player in the City squad and I’d expect her to start and keep a clean sheet.
Alex Greenwood (Manchester City) £6.0m
Charlton have only accumulated 1.3xG in the opening three games and still managed to underperform that figure. City are likely to keep a clean sheet on Saturday, so it’s a sensible decision to include one of their defenders.
Greenwood seems like the one most likely to start, so that’s who I’m picking for now. But if City manager Andrée Jeglertz’s press conference throws a spanner in the works, then I’d be looking to Kerstin Casparij (£8.0m) or Jade Rose (£5.5m) instead.
Amanda Nildén (Tottenham Hotspur) £5.0m
Spurs have hit the headlines for their attacking prowess this season, but they’ve also been excellent defensively. They’ve only conceded twice in three games and only Chelsea and Arsenal have allowed a lower xG total.
Spurs’ opponents this weekend, Aston Villa, are struggling to create chances. Their 1.4xG over three matches is only slightly more than Charlton’s. Amanda Nildén is Spurs’ top-scoring defender this season on 18 points, and is very likely to start on Sunday. Get her in.
Ellie Carpenter (Chelsea) £7.0m
You won’t see me pick many players that are facing a traditional top-three team. However, Ellie Carpenter isn’t your average player. She’s the top-scoring defender in the game and only three points off being the top-scoring player of any position.
The key is that she doesn’t rely on one method of accruing points. She’s had points this season for goals, assists, clean sheets, attacking actions, defensive actions and bonus points.
Katie Robinson (Bristol City) £5.0m
It’s sensible to back Bristol City this weekend. They’ll be the favourites away at a Burnley team with one point, one goal scored and five goals conceded this season. Plus, this game is the only one in the WSL or the WSL2 where we’ll see the team sheets before the deadline, so for those of you committed to fantasy, you can wait to see if your Robins are starting before making your transfers.
Robinson has already scored and assisted this season, ranking as Bristol City’s second-highest-scoring player in fantasy. At 1% selection, she’s also a great differential pick.
Alexia Putellas (London City Lionesses) £8.5m
The two-time Ballon d’Or winner registered her first WSL goal involvement last time out when she assisted Izzy Goodwin. She’s accumulating 0.53 xGI (expected goals + expected assists) per 90 this season, and against a Brighton team searching for their first league win of the season, Putellas is a good shout.
Daniëlle van de Donk (£4.5m) is also a good option if you’re watching your budget, but with the players we have in this squad, we can afford the premium option.
Signe Gaupset (Tottenham Hotspur) £6.0m
Many people will be bringing in a Spurs midfielder this weekend: Olivia Holdt got a hat-trick against Palace last weekend and will be a popular choice. However, I think Signe Gaupset is the better option.
The Norwegian has started all three of Spurs’ WSL games so far, and as she was only given 33 minutes in the midweek game, we can presume she’ll be starting again this weekend.
Spurs face a shockingly porous Villa side that have conceded 10.2 xG in the opening three games – the most of any WSL team. Gaupset has 1.44 goal involvements per 90, so don’t be surprised to see her getting a return again this weekend.
Beth Lumsden (Newcastle United) £7.5m
Lumsden has enjoyed a great start to the season. She’s the third-highest-scoring midfielder in the game so far this season and it’s not just one or two good performances holding her up; she is the only midfielder to have scored at least 6 points in each game, so there’s a reliability to her performances.
She got a goal and an assist last time out, and although she’s facing one of Newcastle’s title challengers this weekend in Leicester, they lost 1-0 last week and are ravaged by injuries.
Bunny Shaw (Manchester City) £12.5m - Captain
A slightly riskier pick than usual. As we discussed on this week’s episode of Decoding Fantasy WSL, City have a very tough run of fixtures at the moment and Charlton (A) would be the ideal time to rest her, should Jeglertz want to.
If she does start, Shaw is the player I would expect to get the most points in the game this weekend. If she doesn’t start or score well, we can sub her out for a player from the bench as she is playing on Saturday.
For me, the risk is worth the reward. If you want a less risky pick, have a look at Mary Fowler (£6.0m) as she will likely start.
Vivien Endemann (Liverpool) £6.0m
Not many players are going to score double-figure points away at Man City this season, but not many players are Vivien Endemann. Bunny Shaw (34) is the only forward to score more fantasy points than Endemann (28), and the German already has two goals, two assists and a clean sheet this season.
Against an Everton side with poor underlying numbers, Endemann should do the business in the Merseyside derby.
Rio Hardy (Bristol City) £8.0m
After scoring 10 goals in WSL2 last season, zero goals and two points in each of the opening two games was a disappointing return for Hardy. However, a hat-trick in Bristol’s 5-1 win away at Watford last weekend means that Hardy has hit form, and is now the third-highest-scoring forward in the game.
Sometimes you can overthink your fantasy picks. Sometimes, you just need to pick the three forwards that have scored the most points this season. I’m doing that.
The Bench
Lize Kop (Tottenham Hotspur) £5.0m
As per usual, we have a starting keeper playing on Saturday and a substitute keeper playing on Sunday. That way, if your Saturday keeper (Yamashita this week) doesn’t score well, you have your Sunday keeper as a back-up.
Kop is my pick as Spurs have a great fixture this weekend against a Villa side struggling to create chances. She kept a clean sheet last time out, and I think she’ll do the same this weekend.
Alejandra Bernabé (Liverpool) £4.5m
Despite a tough run of fixtures to start their season, Liverpool have impressed. That is in no small part due to Bernabé, who has 14 points from the opening three games. She started all three and was rested in their midweek fixture, so expect her to start the Merseyside derby on Sunday. If it weren’t for Everton’s strangely good record at Anfield, Bernabé would be in my starting XI.
Andrea Medina (Manchester United) £5.5m
Hear me out on this one. A Manchester United defender may seem like an odd pick considering they’re yet to keep a clean sheet, but they showed against Arsenal that they can defend resolutely. This weekend they play West Ham, who failed to score against Everton last week. The only points the Hammers have picked up this season were against a London City side that had a very high line.
If Eva Olid is as tactically astute as we believe her to be, she won’t sit her defence high up the pitch and allow West Ham any joy going forward. Medina will rack up defensive actions and was used in a more advanced role last weekend.
Océane Hurtré (Birmingham City) £6.0m
Now that the promoted sides have had a few weeks to find their feet, we can see which players are likely to score us some points. Hurtré is that player this week for me. Birmingham are favourites against another promoted side and she is averaging eight points per game.
Birmingham only scored one goal against Palace last season. Who scored it? Hurtré.
Captaincy conundrum
Usually, captaincy is an easy choice: give it to the player from Saturday that you think will score the most points, and change it to a player from Sunday if Saturday’s player doesn’t perform. Bunny Shaw is normally one of those players, but as it’s unknown whether she will feature, your Sunday back-up needs to be a good one.
I’m giving Shaw the armband, and if I don’t see at least six points from her, it’s going to Endemann for Sunday. If you want a less risky Saturday pick, Hardy or Fowler would be my suggestion.
Sunday morning subs or set-and-forget?
If you’re a keen fantasy player trying to eke out every point you can, make sure you take advantage of your subs. Before Saturday’s midday deadline, ensure that your players playing on Saturday are in your XI, and your bench is made up of players from Sunday’s games that you think are least likely to play.
If you’re a really keen player, wait until the Burnley vs. Bristol City lineups are announced before you make any changes. Just to check that Robinson and Hardy are starting.
If you’re more of a set-and-forget player, I’d suggest altering the bench slightly by putting Bernabé on for Robinson. I would also give the captaincy to someone more likely to play; either Hardy or Endemann would be my pick.
Differentials
These are the players that can give you the edge – the ones that most people have not noticed. Here are my top picks per position, with a maximum 5% ownership:
GK: 3% - Lize Kop (Tottenham Hotspur)
Defender: 2% - Amanda Nildén (Tottenham Hotspur)
Midfielder: 1% - Katie Robinson (Bristol City)
Forward: 3% - Rio Hardy (Bristol City)
The big selection here is Rio Hardy. Despite scoring 10 goals last season in the WSL2, her poor start to this season means that not many teams have selected her. She scored a hat-trick last week and is facing a Burnley side that have conceded five goals in the opening three games.
Get your Arsenal players out... for now
Arsenal have had disappointing results in MW2 and MW3, and up next they have Chelsea (A) and Manchester City (A). Their fixtures are slightly kinder from MW6, and as it’s the start of Leg 2, we all get unlimited transfers.
My recommendation is to drop your Arsenal players if you haven’t already, and if you want to get them back in MW6, you’ll have unlimited transfers to make as many changes as you like.
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For more fantasy tips, check out Decoding Fantasy WSL, the fantasy-focused show from The Cutback Podcast Network, with new episodes every Thursday. Search for ‘Decoding Fantasy WSL’ wherever you get your podcasts.
