I told you last week that Matchweek Four would be tough due to a lack of ‘obvious’ picks, squad rotation, and lots of midweek games in the Subway Players Cup and UWCL. It seems that came to pass, with an average score of 54 points being the lowest-scoring matchweek of the season so far.
Nevertheless, we still managed to score 93 points in MW4, our joint-best week to date. If we hadn’t left an 18-point haul from Océane Hurtré on our bench, we could’ve been as high as 107 points, which would only be six points off the best score in the world.
That brings us to 335 points for the season, enough to be 86th in the world, and only eight points away from breaking the top 50.
Before you check out the team, it’s worth remembering that Matchweek Five is the last of Leg 1. Matchweek Six is the start of a new Leg, so everyone will get unlimited transfers. That means there is no need to look ahead to future matchweeks; just get as many points as you can this week.
Although it’s the same 15 players (costing £96.5m in total), your XI for this week will look very different whether you’re prepared to make changes or if you want to set-and-forget. The selection below is assuming you’d make changes during the weekend. If that’s not your vibe, there’s advice near the bottom explaining how to set your team up for a set-and-forget strategy.
Starting XI
Phallon Tullis-Joyce (Manchester United) £5.5m
If you’ve read my Scout pieces before, you know I’ll always pick two goalkeepers that play on different days. For MW5, all matches are on Sunday, bar one: Manchester United vs. Liverpool. That leaves us just two goalkeepers to pick from for Saturday: Phallon Tullis-Joyce or Khiara Keating.
So far, I would say Keating has had a better season, and she has scored 18 points to Tullis-Joyce’s 15. However, if one team is going to keep a clean sheet in this match, I think it’s going to be Man Utd, so I’m taking the American.
Andrea Medina (Manchester United) £5.5m
Medina is in great form with 24 points in her last two matches. Despite being classed as a defender, she was utilised at left wing against West Ham and accumulated more open-play expected goal involvements (xG + xA) than any other player last weekend.
United have conceded a late goal in each of their last two matches, but as Medina has been subbed off at 88’ and 84’, she was not on the pitch for either goal and therefore kept a clean sheet in both. Even if she doesn’t keep a clean sheet against Liverpool, her data shows a good probability of a goal and/or assist.
Alejandra Bernabé (Liverpool) £4.5m
Reliability is rare in fantasy, but that’s what the Spaniard can give. Other than Man City (A), Bernabé has scored at least six points in each match so far. Man Utd have scored in three of their four WSL matches so far so it’s a risk, but one worth taking.
If our Man Utd and/or Liverpool players don’t return points on Saturday, we can always sub them off for the players on our bench.
Ellie Carpenter (Chelsea) £7.0m
Not many teams have an ‘easy win’ this week, but Chelsea are a team to back away at West Ham. Carpenter is the top-scoring defender in the game, averaging 10.25 points per match. Although expensive at £7m, she’s still great value for it.
Gabby George (Brighton) £4.0m
Brighton players may seem like a strange inclusion, but there’s method to the madness.
Despite sitting 11th in the WSL table, their underlying numbers show they should be a top-half team; the performances are there. George missed the first two matches of the season but has performed well since, including a crucial goal in the 1-1 draw with Aston Villa.
Brighton face a Charlton side that have only accumulated 1.9 xG and scored one goal in four matches, which was a wondergoal. I expect Brighton to keep their first clean sheet of the season this weekend.
Alyssa Thompson (Chelsea) £8.0m
Thompson has been a crucial cog in Chelsea’s success this season. They’re unbeaten in the WSL, winning their last three without conceding a goal. The American has accumulated the second most xG in the WSL (2.25, only behind Bunny Shaw on an incredible 5.59), and in Sunday’s London derby with Arsenal she scored the only goal of the game.
West Ham away is, on paper, a relatively easy fixture for Thompson and I expect her to return some decent points.
Lauren James (Chelsea) £7.5m
With 27 points from three matches, James is returning an average of nine points per match; well worth her £7.5m price tag.
Similarly to Thompson, James also scored the last time Chelsea played West Ham. There’s a threat of rotation with Chelsea playing away at OL Lyonnes in midweek, but if James plays then expect her to score points. If she doesn’t play, we’ve got great players on the bench to deputise.
Océane Hurtré (Birmingham City) £6.0m
Not many people would’ve picked Hurtré to be the game’s top player after four matchweeks, but her 42 points so far is more than any other player. She has the joint-most goals in the WSL too, and this is all despite Birmingham being yet to win a match.
Although results have been decent, Everton’s performances have been poor this season, so I expect Birmingham to get on the scoresheet this weekend. And Hurtré is most likely to be the player popping up with a goal. Amazingly, she’s only in 3% of teams.
Chantelle Boye-Hlorkah (Nottingham Forest) £7.5m
The Ghanaian international hasn’t missed a minute for a Forest side that is still unbeaten in the WSL2 this season, and she has scored in each of her last three league matches. She’s also scoring good points in fantasy; with 30 points in her last three, this is a player in form. This weekend’s opponent, Burnley, are yet to win this season, so they are there for the taking.
Vivien Endemann (Liverpool) £6.0m
Despite a relatively disappointing three points at the weekend against Everton, Endemann is still the third-highest scoring forward in the game, showcasing her talent. Man Utd (A) is a tough fixture, but after she got a goal and an assist away at Man City a couple of weeks ago, we know she can perform in the big games.
Similarly to the other Liverpool/United players, as she is playing on Saturday, there is the fallback option of substituting her if she doesn’t return points.
Bunny Shaw (Manchester City) £12.5m
Shaw didn’t start City’s last WSL game as her minutes were managed ahead of a midweek clash away to Bayern Munich. Against an Arsenal side that has only conceded two goals in four WSL games, I’m expecting City’s front four to be back to full strength, which obviously includes Bunny.
She’s averaging 11.3 points per start, and anyone that’s watched any WSL football in the last few years knows that Shaw can score against anyone.
The Bench
Anna Tamminen (Newcastle United) £5.0m
If you want a set-and-forget team, then put Tamminen from the start. Across the two leagues, I believe Newcastle are the team most likely to win and most likely to get a clean sheet, so Tamminen is the best GK pick. However, if you’re like me and will be checking your team on Sunday morning to make changes, you may as well see if Tullis-Joyce returns first.
Beth Lumsden (Newcastle United) £7.5m
With two goals and two assists in four matches, it’s perhaps unsurprising that Lumsden is the fourth-highest scoring player in the game. She’s started all four of Newcastle’s matches and as they’re playing bottom-place Durham, I’m expecting a good haul. You may find it odd I’ve got Lumsden on my bench, but it’s tactical. I’ll go through it in more depth below.
Martha Thomas (Newcastle United) £5.0m
Only 12 players have accumulated 32 points or more this season, and Thomas has done that in her last two matches. Next up is a Durham side conceding 3.25 goals per game on average, so the Scot will be licking her lips at the prospect of getting on the scoresheet again
Manuela Vanegas (Brighton) £5.0m
You may think a player with 13 points in four matches isn’t a great pick, but Vanegas is a good backup. But the Colombian hasn’t missed a minute for a Brighton side likely to get a clean sheet this weekend.
Sunday morning subs or set-and-forget?
Making changes to your team is key to succeeding in fantasy. I’ve done the maths and so far this season we’ve scored an extra 20 points by making changes between matchdays. If we continue averaging an extra five points per matchweek, that’s 130 extra points over the course of the season, which would make a real change.
With Newcastle playing in the earliest Sunday game, my plan would be to check the lineups once they’re released on Sunday morning, then sub on the Newcastle players that are playing (which will likely be all three) for any Man Utd or Liverpool players that score less than four points. If there are more Newcastle players starting than Liverpool/United players scoring less than four points, Boye-Hlorkah and George would be my next picks for the bench. With Newcastle’s kind fixture, it’s key to get as many starting Newcastle players on the pitch as you can.
If you’re looking for a set-and-forget team, I’d recommend having your bench as Tullis-Joyce, George, Vanegas, Bernabe; in that order.
Captaincy choices
My captaincy recommendation would be to give Endemann the armband for Saturday. If Endemann scores less than six points, move it to Thomas for Sunday.
If you want to set-and-forget, then put it on Martha Thomas from the start.
Thomas is the player I think will get the most points this matchweek, but any of Carpenter, Lumsden, Hurtré and Shaw would be good choices.
Differentials
These are the players that can give you the edge – the ones that most people have not noticed. Here are my top picks per position, with a maximum 5% ownership:
GK: 2% - Pauline Peyraud-Magnin (Crystal Palace)
Defender: 2% - Andrea Medina (Manchester United)
Midfielder: 3% - Océane Hurtré (Birmingham City)
Forward: 4% - Martha Thomas (Newcastle United)
This is probably the week where differentials could make the most difference, mainly from two players who are very high scorers. Océane Hurtré is the top-scoring player in the game with 42 points, so I’m quite surprised she is still only in 3% of teams. Martha Thomas has 32 points in her last two games and is almost certain to start against a leaky defence.
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