Uefa Women's Champions League permutations: Who will make it through to the knockout stages?

Every permutation and potential scenario for the final matchday of the UWCL league phase

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The inaugural edition of the league phase of the Uefa Women’s Champions League will come to a conclusion on Wednesday, with all nine fixtures played simultaneously at 8pm GMT/9pm CET.

With countless permutations at play, The Cutback has got your back with a go-to-guide on who needs what in the final round of UWCL games this year.

What’s at stake?

Uefa revamped the Women’s Champions League for this season, replacing the old group stage with a league phase – essentially a downscaled version of the same format currently seen in the men’s competition. With 18 teams involved to begin with, the top 12 in the table advance to knockout phase. Of those 12, the top four will qualify directly for the quarter-finals, while those finishing between fifth and 12th will contest a playoff round to decide who claims the remaining four spots.

Who’s secured a quarter-final spot?

Technically speaking, no team has mathematically secured a place in the quarter-finals with a game to spare, meaning that all the teams in the upper echelons of the table still have something to play for on matchday six. However, first-placed Barcelona’s healthy goal-difference means that three quarter-final spots are effectively up for grabs, with everyone down to Paris FC in tenth place still in with a chance of qualifying directly.

Who’s secured a place in the knockout phase?

Ten of the 12 spots in the knockout phase have been secured, and 11th-placed Atletico Madrid are all-but guaranteed of a playoff spot too, due to their goal difference advantage over Valerenga, who are the only team who outside of top 12 still in with a chance of securing a spot in the knockouts.

Belgian champions Leuven, who host Arsenal on Wednesday night, are the only team inside the top 12 for whom direct elimination remains a genuine possibility. Failure to win against the Gunners combined with a Valerenga win away to Bayern, would see the Norwegians progress at their expense.

Teams that have qualified for the knockout phase and can still qualify automatically for the quarter-finals: Barcelona, Lyon, Juventus, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Wolfsburg, Arsenal, Manchester United, Paris FC

Teams that can’t make the quarter-finals but can still qualify for the knockout phase:

Atletico Madrid, Leuven, Valerenga

Who’s out?

Despite the new league phase turning up the drama in this season’s UWCL, five of the six teams to be eliminated at this stage have already been confirmed. Some big names, most notably PSG, are out with a game to spare after failing to win any of their first five games. Roma and Benfica have also crashed out, while FC Twente and St Polten complete the set of teams with nothing but pride to play for on matchday six.

What about seeding?

This is where things get interesting for the real permutation-heads among you. While teams as far down as Paris FC in 10th will be harbouring at least feint hopes of a quarter-final berth, a more attainable aim for these sides will be to secure as high a seeding as possible, which correlates to a team’s final position.

The higher you finish, the (theoretically) kinder your draw. For example, teams finishing fifth and sixth in the table would be drawn against one of the two lowest-ranked teams in the playoff round, and would also avoid one of the top-two ranked teams in the quarter-final, should they progress. On the flip side, a team finishing ninth or 10th would play seventh or eighth in the playoff round, before a potential quarter-final against one of the top two.

If we use Arsenal as a hypothetical example, using the table as it currently stands, an eighth-placed finish would see them play Manchester United or Paris FC in the playoff round, followed by Barcelona or Lyon in the quarter-final, while a sixth-placed finish could see them play Atletico Madrid or Leuven, followed by Juventus or Chelsea (of course, a whole range of positions in the final table could yet change).

Can a team earn second-leg home advantage?

Yes. Again, this all corresponds with a team’s final position. The top two spots in the league phase are of the utmost value, as finishing in one of these positions guarantees home advantage in the second leg every two-legged knockout round. Finishing third or fourth will guarantee home advantage in the quarter-finals, while teams finishing fifth to eighth will be at home in the second legs of the playoff round.

What are the permutations for the English clubs?

Chelsea

The champions of England enter matchday six inside the top four. For them, the equation is simple: win away at Wolfsburg and they are guaranteed a quarter-final berth. Should they draw in Germany, they will need two teams from the trio of Juventus (at home to Manchester United), Real Madrid (away to FC Twente), Bayern (home to Valerenga) to fail to win. Should they lose, they will enter the playoffs should any one the three teams mentioned above, Arsenal or Manchester United secure a win.

The Blues also have a chance of making the top two and confirming home advantage in the second leg of every knockout round. To do this they must win, with one of Barcelona (home to Paris FC) or Lyon (home to Atletico) failing to win.

Arsenal

The Gunners enter matchday six assured of at least a playoff spot, currently sitting eighth in the table. A top-four spot is unlikely, but not impossible. Should the Gunners win in Leuven, with all three of Juventus, Real Madrid, and Bayern failing to win, they would secure a quarter-final spot. Alternatively, two of these three teams failing to win, Wolfsburg beating Chelsea, and the Gunners winning by three goals more than Wolfsburg (ie Arsenal win 4-0, Wolfsburg win 1-0) would be enough.

More realistic for Arsenal is a top-six spot, which would improve their seeding as alluded to earlier. A win, combined with any one of Bayern, Real Madrid or Juventus failing to win would secure them top six, meaning WSL rivals Manchester United could do them a favour here.

Should Arsenal draw, a top-four place becomes mathematically impossible, and they would likely finish no higher than seventh, though a fifth-place finish would technically be possible with the right combination of results. Should Renee Slegers’ team lose, they would be staring at the prospect of losing home advantage in the second leg of the knockout playoff round, as defeat combined with Manchester United getting at least a draw in Turin would see them fall out of the top eight.

Manchester United

Like Arsenal, United are guaranteed UWCL football in the new year, but their shot at a place in the top four is exceedingly slim. For United to book a quarter-final spot, they would need to win, with all three of Arsenal, Bayern, and Real Madrid failing to win. However, a win for Marc Skinner’s side would guarantee at least a seventh-place finish, meaning home advantage in the second leg of the playoff round.

Should United draw, they could technically still finish as high as sixth, but would need all three of Arsenal, Wolfsburg and Bayern to lose in order to achieve this. If the Red Devils lose, they would be guaranteed to end to up on the unseeded half of the knockout playoff-round draw.